Political upheaval in Libya and the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region — where Libyan rebels overthrew autocratic ruler of Libya Muammar el-Qaddafi — has sparked mixed opinions from Emory's faculty members. Some professors explained that although the trend to topple dictatorships in MENA is gaining prevalence, the post-upheaval transition is far more difficult.
As of Aug. 27, Libyan rebels established a provisional government to restore some of the country's ongoing problems, such as loss of electrical power, inadequate medical care and lack of running water.
Although members of Qaddafi's family have fled Libya to nearby countries like Algeria, his own whereabouts remain unknown.
Libya falls within the larger shift toward democratic governments in the Middle East, and is only one aspect of the democratization, according to Ken Stein, the William E. Schatten Professor of Contemporary Middle Eastern History, Political Science and Israeli Studies and Director of the Institute for the Study of Modern Israel.
Stein pointed out a trend of fallen dictators and cited Tunisia, Yemen and Egypt among the countries that have moved past dictatorships.
Some countries, such as Syria, still remain in a limbo of political upheaval, Stein said. He explained that other areas of MENA are introducing changes in the relationship between "the rulers and the ruled" in Bahrain, Jordan and Morocco.
Even looking at this broader trend, Stein said he thinks the future of MENA remains to be seen.
"Turning autocrats from power was relatively easy; configuring new politics from old politics is much more difficult," Stein said. He said that he thinks in order for true democratization to occur, "those living in the region will have to perceive themselves as being more than inhabitants, but actually citizens."
Dan Reiter, chair and professor of the political science department, said he agrees that the future is uncertain regarding whether Libyan democratization will contribute to democratization of the whole Middle East since "sometimes democratization can create positive regional momentum, and sometimes not."
Reiter said that the key to the true democratization of MENA lies in how each of the events affect each other, such as how the fallen Libyan government will affect Syria's current struggle to depose of Bashar al-Assad, the current president of Syria.
Syria remains a tricky country in terms of determining the political outcome because Assad shows no signs of conceding, maintains a firm grip on power and will not shy away from using force to showcase his power, Reiter added.
Stein mentioned that "with the anticipated departure of significant U.S. forces from Iraq and Afghanistan over the next several years, the potential for continued instability and uncertainty in the region is not less, but more."
In the context of Libya, chaos "may allow al Qaeda or other terrorist groups to seize loose weapons and then use them for attacks around the world," Reiter said.
Stein noted these upheavals create difficulties for future MENA leaders who have to contend with "inflated expectations for a better tomorrow."
As for the effect of the Arab Spring — the phrase used to describe the wave of uprisings which swept the Middle East last spring — on MENA's stability, the answer remains unclear, Stein said.
"In the long term, democratization in the Middle East will likely help bring peace there, as mature democracies tend not to fight each other," Reiter said.
It's the short-term implications of the Middle Eastern uprisings, he noted, that are impossible to predict.
"There may be instability before these nations develop into mature, stable democratic institutions," he said.